Will Kazakhstan increase oil shipments via the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline in 2026?
In 2025, KazMunayGas shipped 1.3 million tons of crude through the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline, underscoring Astana’s push to diversify exports away from Russian routes. With capacity available and geopolitical incentives aligned, the question is whether volumes meaningfully rise next year.
Conditions
Resolves “Yes” if by December 31, 2026, Kazakhstan’s crude shipments via the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline reach at least 1.6 million tons/year, as confirmed by KazMunayGas, pipeline operators, or reported by major international media (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, TASS). Otherwise — No.
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