Will Russia’s oil export revenues increase due to higher oil prices during the U.S.–Israel military operation against Iran?

Energy expert Gennadiy Ryabtsev argues that if the U.S.–Israel operation in Iran concludes within several weeks, Russia will have little time to benefit from elevated oil prices. He suggests Washington has an incentive to keep the conflict short to avoid prolonged supply disruptions and rising fuel costs. Moreover, if sanctions on Iran are lifted following the operation, additional Iranian oil could return to global markets, potentially creating oversupply and putting downward pressure on prices — which could negatively impact Russian export revenues. The uncertainty lies in whether the conflict meaningfully boosts oil prices long enough to increase Russia’s export earnings — or whether a short campaign and potential Iranian supply return offset any temporary gains.