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Each event offers two possible outcomes: “YES” or “NO”.

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A 10% fee is deducted, and the remaining amount is distributed among participants who made the correct prediction — proportionally to their stake.

Could Europe start cutting its exposure to U.S. assets in response to Trump’s tariff threats?

75%
25%

According to Bloomberg, analysts warn that escalating trade pressure from Donald Trump—including tariffs tied to disputes over Greenland—may push the EU to reconsider its massive holdings of U.S. securities. Europe currently owns about $8 trillion in U.S. stocks and bonds, making it Washington’s largest creditor. Deutsche Bank strategist George Saravelos argues that in a world of rising geopolitical friction, capital flows—not trade—could become the main weapon. Any meaningful European rebalancing away from U.S. assets could weaken the dollar, support the euro, and trigger volatility across global markets.

Economics
Geopolitics
Markets

Conditions

Resolves “Yes” if by June 30, 2026, official data or credible reporting from major financial institutions or media (e.g. Bloomberg, ECB, IMF) confirms that EU member states or EU-based public institutions have materially reduced their aggregate holdings of U.S. equities and/or U.S. Treasury securities (beyond normal market fluctuations), with the move explicitly linked to U.S. tariff policy or political pressure under President Donald Trump. Otherwise — No.

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