Will European natural gas prices rise another 20% amid Middle East energy disruptions?

European gas prices surged nearly 50% after Iranian strikes led Saudi Arabia to shut its Ras Tanura refinery and Qatar to halt LNG production at Ras Laffan. Additional precautionary shutdowns in Iraqi Kurdistan and Israel’s Leviathan gas field have intensified fears of supply disruptions. Qatar is the world’s largest LNG exporter, and prolonged outages could significantly tighten global supply, especially for Europe, which remains sensitive to external shocks. However, much depends on how long facilities remain offline and whether diplomatic efforts prevent further escalation. The uncertainty lies in whether these disruptions are short-lived precautionary pauses — or the start of a sustained supply shock that drives prices materially higher.